所属 広島修道大学 経済科学部 職種 教授
|Global Flow of Funds and Uncertainty: Focus on the Cross-Border Financing
|Advanced Studies in Economic Sciences, Information Systems, Economics and OR
|Kyushu University Press
|@Nan Zhang & Li Zhu
|This paper try to clarify global uncertainty from the view of global flow of funds by investigating the uncertain shocking influence of Cross-Border Financing between China, Japan, and the U.S. using the Bank for International Settlements(BIS) Locational Banking Statistics data. The dyadic structure of this data allows to disentangle supply and demand factors and to better identify the effect of uncertainty shocks on cross-border banking flows. The results of this analysis suggest that: (i) uncertainty is both a push and pull factor that robustly predicts a decrease in both outflows (retrenchment) and inflows (stops); (ii) global banks rebalance their lending towards safer foreign borrowers from local borrowers when facing higher uncertainty; (iii) this rebalancing occurs only towards advanced economies (flight to quality), but not emerging market economies.